Polymarket Reveals Top Picks for Trump’s Remaining Cabinet Jobs

President-elect Donald Trump has announced 11 nominations for his second-term Cabinet, with more than a dozen possibly yet to be named.
Besides several posts—including U.S. trade representative and chair of his Council of Economic Advisers—Polymarket users have placed bets on almost every one of Trump’s remaining picks.
Here is how Polymarket traders believe Trump will staff the remaining posts in his administration.
One of the president-elect’s most significant appointments is the secretary of the treasury, the federal government’s top financial officer responsible for shaping the fiscal direction of economic policy. Whoever Trump picks will be tasked with carrying forward his America First fiscal agenda: raising tariffs on foreign imports, cutting corporation taxes as promised on the campaign trail, while ensuring these policies do not worsen inflation.
According to Polymarket bettors, the front-runner is Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager who served as an economic adviser to Trump’s presidential campaign.
Odds suggest Bessent currently has a 69 percent chance of securing the nod, followed by Howard Lutnick at 26.3 percent.
Lutnick is the CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and serves as co-chair of the Trump transition team, along with Linda McMahon.
Trump has previously said that American farmers were getting “decimated” as a result of the country importing agricultural products. Whoever is tasked with leading the Department of Agriculture will have to live up to the president-elect’s promises to amend this.
According to Polymarket, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie is in the lead, with odds at 33 percent.
Sid Miller, the Texas agriculture commissioner, is next on the list at 22 percent.
The Department of Commerce is focused on creating “the conditions for economic growth and opportunity for all communities,” according to its website, both among the top priorities of any administration, especially one overseeing an economy still on a tentative rebound.
According to Polymarket, McMahon is pegged to fill the post of commerce secretary in Trump’s Cabinet with odds currently at 67 percent.
McMahon is a business executive and co-founder, along with her husband, Vince, of World Wrestling Entertainment, the world’s largest pro wrestling promotion.
McMahon served in Trump’s last administration as administrator of the Small Business Administration.
After McMahon, Polymarket bettors give Robert Lighthizer a 14 percent chance. Like McMahon, Lighthizer served as Trump’s U.S. trade representative between 2017 and 2021, during which he earned a reputation as the “architect” of the administration’s “trade war” with China.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is tasked with addressing the nation’s housing needs and supporting the provision of safe and affordable housing for Americans while also financing community development projects.
According to Polymarket traders, Dr. Ben Carson will again assume the role, having served as Trump’s HUD secretary for the entirety of his first term.
Carson has a 25.9 percent shot, followed by William Pulte, a philanthropist and grandson of the late William J. Pulte, founder of the home construction and real estate development firm Pulte Group.
Carson overtook Pulte, whose odds currently stand at 21 percent, on Polymarket a few days ago. However, the New York Post reported, citing a source close to negotiations, that many in the transition team had advocated “loudly” for Pulte’s nomination.
“Drill, baby, drill” became one of Trump’s most common mantra’s during his campaign, and his pick for secretary of energy may reflect his belief that slashing regulations to exploit America’s fossil fuel potential could be a panacea for its financial woes.
The role also involves overseeing the development and testing of the country’s nuclear stockpile, the modernization of America’s energy infrastructure, and research into alternative sources of energy.
According to Polymarket bettors, Dan Brouillete is the favorite, with odds currently at 50 percent. Brouillete became Trump’s energy secretary in 2019, following the resignation of Rick Perry, and held the post until the Biden administration took office.
Mark Menezes is second on the list with odds at 18.4 percent. Menezes served as under secretary of energy in 2017, becoming deputy secretary in 2020 following Brouillete’s promotion.
The Department of Transportation is responsible for ensuring safe, efficient and reliable travel for Americans nationwide by regulating various modes of transportation, maintaining infrastructure, and advancing innovations in air, rail and maritime travel.
Garret Graves is poised to head up the department, according to Polymarket traders, who give him a 54 percent of securing the nod. The representative for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District has held several advisory roles within the government focused on transportation.
Missouri Representative Sam Graves has a 14 percent chance. Graves currently chairs the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.
The secretary of education oversees all federal policies, programs and funding related to education. The role also involves managing student loan programs and initiatives to improve teacher quality and educational standards while advocating for policies that address national education challenges such as affordability, equity and workforce readiness.
Tiffany Justice is the top candidate for the post, according to Polymarket, with a 39 percent chance. Justice became known during the COVID-19 pandemic as the co-founder of Moms for Liberty, a parental rights organization that campaigned against schools enforcing mask and vaccine mandates.
After Justice, Ryan Walters’ odds stand at 20 percent. Walters currently serves as the Oklahoma superintendent of public instruction, a post that leads the state’s Department of Education.
Polymarket gives former Education Secretary Betsy Devos an 8 percent shot at returning to the post.
President-elect Donald Trump is assembling members of his Cabinet for his second term. Follow Newsweek’s live blog for updates.
Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about this article? Contact [email protected].