Donald Trump’s Migration Plan Will Drive Up Grocery Prices, Economist Warns

A Nobel-prize winning economist has warned President-elect Donald Trump would drive up inflation on housing and groceries through his proposed mass deportations and strict border control.
In a Monday New York Times opinion column, Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman argued that Trump’s policies could have the unintended consequence of worsening inflation—a major concern among voters.
“If you’re upset about grocery prices now, see what happens if Trump goes after a huge part of the agricultural workforce,” Krugman wrote.
He detailed how Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could create a severe labor shortage in critical sectors like agriculture, food processing, and construction, leading to substantial price hikes.
Newsweek has contacted Trump’s team for comment.
According to Krugman, immigrants make up about three-quarters of agricultural labor, with roughly half of them undocumented.
Food processing also heavily relies on immigrant labor. He estimated that 30 to 50 percent of meatpacking workers are undocumented.
Krugman warned that deporting these workers would force the industry to offer significantly higher wages, a cost that would likely be passed on to consumers.
Krugman further explained that Trump’s plans would damage the productive capacity of the economy at a time of near-full employment, fueling inflation.
“Could we easily make up for the loss of these workers by replacing them with native-born workers? No,” he said. “Employment among native-born adults in their prime working years is higher than it was at any point during Trump’s first term.”
In addition to its effects on food prices, Trump’s immigration policy could worsen the already significant housing affordability crisis, according to Krugman.
Undocumented immigrants constitute more than a fifth of the U.S. construction workforce. “The answer to that problem is to build more housing units,” Krugman wrote, claiming deportations would severely hamper efforts to increase the housing supply.
Trump has promised that mass-deportations and strict border patrol will be a central policy of his administration.
Earlier this week, he appointed Tom Homan, his former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and a contributor to Project 2025, as his “border czar.”
Homan, known for his strong stance on deportations and his involvement in the controversial family separation policy during the first Trump administration, promises to lead what he describes as the “biggest deportation force this country has ever seen.”
Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokesperson, previously told Newsweek: “The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.”